Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

1

Introduction

00:00 • 5min

2

The Star-Spangled Banner: Chris Voss

04:33 • 2min

3

How to Negotiate With a Kidnapper

06:52 • 2min

4

How to Play Negotiation as a Game

09:12 • 2min

5

The Impetus to Go Into the FBI

10:44 • 2min

6

The Life and Times of a Terrorist

12:20 • 2min

7

How to Make a Career in the Field of Hostage Negotiation

14:04 • 2min

8

The Power of Reflection

15:45 • 5min

9

The Influence of Bill Urey and Daniel Kahneman on Negotiation

20:23 • 3min

10

The Advantages of Negotiation

23:33 • 3min

11

The Patterns of Batshit Crazy

26:34 • 2min

12

How to Influence Your Emotions

28:19 • 2min

13

The Importance of Communication in Business

29:56 • 2min

14

The Power of Saying No

31:55 • 4min

15

The Importance of Objectives in Pharmaceutical Sales

35:28 • 2min

16

How to Deal With a Kidnapper

37:25 • 2min

17

How to Negotiate With a Lone Serial Killer

39:23 • 2min

18

The Power of Promise

41:47 • 2min

19

Why Questions Make People Feel Defensive

43:28 • 3min

20

The Panochial Effect

46:53 • 2min

21

How to Negotiate as if Your Life Depends on It

48:32 • 2min

22

The Importance of Asking for More

50:03 • 2min

23

The Science of Negotiation

52:10 • 2min

24

The Importance of Intellectual Structure in Negotiation

53:52 • 2min

25

How to Deal With a Kidnapping

56:10 • 3min

26

How to Make a Kidnapper Feel Like They Got Everything They Could

58:42 • 2min

27

The Power of Deferential Questions

01:00:21 • 2min

28

How to Mirror Someone

01:02:04 • 2min

29

The Lessons Learned From the Burn of Case

01:03:45 • 5min

30

How to Pay a Picture for Me Quickly

01:08:15 • 2min

31

The Rise of Behavioral Economics and the Social Psychology

01:09:52 • 2min

32

Pre-Sway-Tion: A Guide to Influence

01:11:35 • 2min

33

The Power of Persuasion

01:13:28 • 2min

34

The Six Principles of Influence

01:15:27 • 2min

35

How to Build Trust in Your Customers

01:17:49 • 3min

36

The Power of Persuasion

01:20:29 • 2min

37

The Power of Anchoring

01:22:24 • 3min

38

The Power of Persuasion

01:25:04 • 2min

39

The Role of Unity in Co-Operative Behavior

01:26:45 • 2min

40

The 18 Month Old Babies

01:29:02 • 2min

41

How to Ask for Your Boss's Advice on Your Plan

01:30:54 • 2min

42

The Importance of Preswasion

01:32:25 • 2min

43

The New Principle of Influence: Unity

01:34:11 • 2min

44

The Importance of Unity

01:35:46 • 2min

45

How to Motivate People to Take Environmentally Friendly, Sustainable Action

01:38:02 • 5min

46

The Importance of Social Media in Restaurants

01:43:15 • 5min

47

How to Save the Environment and Save the Earth

01:47:49 • 3min

48

The Effect of Social Norms on Hotel Performance

01:50:36 • 1min

49

The Effect of Normative Information on Energy Conservation

01:51:53 • 5min

50

The Rise and Fall of Bill Clinton

01:56:52 • 2min

51

The Power of Forecasting

01:58:47 • 2min

52

The Good Judgment Project: A Research Project That Never Should Have Happened if the Basic Laws of Bureaucracy Had Held

02:00:25 • 2min

53

The Future of Politics

02:02:34 • 2min

54

The Importance of Probabilistic Estimates

02:04:20 • 2min

55

The Probability of Iraq's WMD Interaction

02:06:01 • 3min

56

The Probabilistic Way of Thinking in Public Discourse

02:08:32 • 2min

57

The Probabilistic Game of Prediction

02:10:47 • 3min

58

The Importance of Probability Statistics in Betting

02:13:29 • 2min

59

The Importance of Granularity in Decision Making

02:15:04 • 2min

60

The Importance of Listening to Super Forecasters

02:16:50 • 3min

61

The Power of Second Estimates

02:19:41 • 2min

62

The Inside-Outside Dilemma in Forecasting

02:21:27 • 3min

63

The Importance of How and Why Thinking

02:24:22 • 3min

64

The Benefits of Thinking More Probabilistically

02:27:10 • 2min

65

The Importance of Investing in High Probability Events

02:28:50 • 2min

66

The Probabilistic Mindset in Forecasting

02:30:57 • 3min

67

The Nature of Superforecasters

02:33:53 • 2min

68

How to Be a Superforecaster

02:35:34 • 2min

69

The Power of Moving Averages

02:37:21 • 2min

70

The Importance of Uncertainty in Forecasting

02:39:32 • 2min

71

The Uncertainty of Forecasting

02:41:05 • 3min

72

The Importance of Predicting

02:43:46 • 2min

73

The Side Effects of Cholesterol Reducing Drugs

02:46:07 • 2min

74

The Importance of Simple Statistics in Trading

02:47:38 • 2min

75

The Importance of Consistency in Trading

02:49:15 • 2min

76

The Placebo Effect

02:51:06 • 2min

77

The Placebo Effect

02:53:14 • 2min

78

The Illusion of Control

02:54:48 • 2min

79

The Importance of Accepting Uncertainty

02:56:27 • 2min

80

The Illusion of Control

02:58:27 • 3min

81

How to Be a Better Statistician

03:01:15 • 2min

82

The Importance of Trusting the System

03:03:08 • 2min

83

The Truth Is the Driving Force of Everything

03:04:39 • 2min

84

The Future Is Never Like the Past

03:06:19 • 2min

85

The Prostrate Cancer Test

03:08:19 • 2min

86

Dance With Chance

03:09:56 • 2min

87

Tim Ferriss: A Zombie's Guide to Success

03:11:50 • 5min

88

The Importance of Aggression in Wrestling

03:16:25 • 4min

89

How to Make a TV Show

03:20:38 • 4min

90

How to Reduce Your Hourly Input and Output

03:24:50 • 4min

91

How to Be a Better Entrepreneur by Using 80-20 Analysis

03:29:19 • 4min

92

The Importance of Recovery in Athletics

03:32:59 • 6min

93

The Tim Ferriss Experiment

03:38:40 • 2min

94

How to Make Money Up, Down and Surprise Markets

03:40:54 • 2min