Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Inside-Outside Dilemma in Forecasting
Superforecasters have a tendency to start with the outside view and work into the inside slowly, rather than what regular forecasters would do. This is putting a premium on mental agility and being a quick study. If you're a super forecaster, even though you know almost nothing, you don't know nothing. You know something. And it is, the dictators tend to be sticky. Once a dictator has been in power for a certain period, the likelihood that dictator making it another year is extremely high. It's probably as high as 0.95.
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