Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Power of Second Estimates
Super forecasters are acutely aware that there is very valuable information lying around in the world. Paul Samuelson famously joked that it's predicted nine of the last five recessions. Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong produces a second estimate, which improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.
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Transcript
