Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probabilistic Way of Thinking in Public Discourse
I think it's very difficult to reconstruct and I think Robert Juris at Columbia University has written a very interesting post-mortem of the WMD intelligence analysis. Part of the problem was that this was happening in the aftermath of 9-11 and nobody wanted to make a false negative mistake. If you're going to make an error in the blame game culture of Washington DC, make sure it's not the same type of error you made last time. We have to, as a society, dealing with uncertainty becomes a real educational process, doesn't it?
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