Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probability of Iraq's WMD Interaction
I don't think the research project, the tournament even would have happened had the intelligence community not made a cell mass of an error on WMD. It's really hard to know what the true probability, what a perfect information processor, have assigned to Saddam having weapons of mass destruction before the invasion. I think it's a good possibility they would not have and I think world history would have unfolded quite differently.
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Transcript
