Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Investing in High Probability Events
I don't see how you can make contingency plans without also attaching probabilities to scenarios. I think we are inevitably going to run into low predictability years in which the very best forecasters are hard pressed to do any better than dart-going chimpanzees. We prefer to think of there being a continuum from white swans to gray swans, the dark gray swans and the black swans. So I think we see greater value in investing energy and improving the accuracy of high probability judgments. NSCM 11 is most recent book on anti-fragility. These greater value in Investing in Contingency Plans for Black Swans.
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