Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probabilistic Game of Prediction
The accuracy of probability estimates of single events is inherently indeterminate. When the market says a 75% chance, that means there's a 25% chance it's not going to happen. How much confidence should you leave in those prediction markets when you learn they put a 75% chances on something that didn't happen? We have to get at least a sophisticated focus, as we are in thinking about baseball batting averages and basketball pre-throw percentages.
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Transcript
