Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probabilistic Mindset in Forecasting
Super-forecasters don't like vague verbiage when it comes to the outcomes forecast. They distinguish many degrees of uncertainty, says John Defterios. The right way to ask a super-forecaster would be to what degree do you believe that the average surface temperature of the earth in 2100 will fall into the following temperature band differentials? "That's not exactly casual barroom conversation," he adds.
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Transcript
