NAB Morning Call

Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy and macro-politics adviser, offers sharp analysis on Trump’s shift toward winding down military action against Iran. He breaks down the two-track messaging for domestic and Gulf audiences. Discussion also covers coalition diplomacy, Strait of Hormuz energy risks, market reactions to de-escalation, and AI framed as a national security priority.

Taylor Nugent, NAB Markets economist and strategist, breaks down why markets are suddenly upbeat amid ceasefire speculation in Iran. They cover big equity gains, oil dipping, resilient US data like ISM, and supply delays tied to Middle East disruptions. There is also discussion of rising BOJ inflation expectations, choppy Australian building approvals, and what upcoming US payrolls might mean for markets.

Rodrigo Catril, senior markets economist and strategist, gives quick takes on geopolitics, PMIs, inflation and labour signals. He discusses market optimism after reports of U.S. de-escalation with continued Strait of Hormuz risks. He highlights China’s PMI rebound, a Eurozone inflation jump, and signs of softening in the U.S. labour market.

Ken Crompton, NAB markets economist who analyses bonds and inflation, joins to unpack market moves. They talk rising oil and a global bond rally. They discuss a shift from inflation fears to slowdown worries and why Powell’s comments eased rate-hike concerns. Conversation also covers energy-driven inflation, yen intervention risk, China export threats and a surprising bright spot in EV demand.

Skye Masters, market economist at NAB who analyses macro trends and markets, discusses oil’s jump amid Middle East tensions and whether that fuels inflation or chokes demand. She covers shifting bond yields, the Michigan survey’s hit to consumer sentiment, VIX-driven currency moves, and the key week of payrolls and CPI data shaping central bank reactions.

Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, backs financing and policy solutions for social and modular housing. Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, builds and manages large-scale build-to-rent projects. They discuss how institutional long-term ownership, five-year leases and professional management change renter security. They cover financing tools, mixed-impact and affordable housing allocations and modular construction.

Ray Attrill, senior markets economist at NAB, offers quick market analysis and a brief bio as an experienced strategist. He discusses spikes in Brent oil, geopolitical tensions after a rejected US‑Iran ultimatum, volatility signals like the VIX, central bank hawkish pivots, AUD weakness, shipping risks and possible escalation scenarios. Short, sharp takes on market moves and policy implications.

Taylor Nugent, NAB markets economist in Sydney who analyzes geopolitics, inflation and interest rates. They unpack oil and bond reactions to Middle East diplomatic deadlock. They discuss how Iran’s counter-demands shape market risk. They review Australian CPI, the looming fuel-driven spike in March, and central banks’ likely responses.

Skye Masters, NAB markets analyst who covers bonds and commodities, joins to unpack rising oil and surging bond yields amid new Middle East tensions. Short, clear takes on troop movements, shipping risks and shifting central bank reactions. They also flag PMI input‑cost pressures, weak consumer confidence and the market impact of geopolitical uncertainty.

Sally Auld, market economist and NAB Markets Research commentator, breaks down a sudden market wobble tied to US–Iran headline swings. She covers the sharp oil drop and equity bounce, shifting bond yields and central bank hawkishness, and how war-driven costs are squeezing consumer confidence. Short-term hope meets persistent uncertainty as key PMIs and Japan CPI loom.