NAB Morning Call

Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior market economist, breaks down rapid market moves tied to the Iran–Hormuz standoff. He covers soaring oil, spiking bond yields and currency swings. Topics include US threats to Iranian infrastructure, Iran’s expanded strike reach, energy market risk pricing, and which sectors and currencies could win or lose if tensions persist.

Friday 20th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB markets strategist and economist, offers crisp market analysis. He breaks down the surge in oil and gas after attacks on Middle East energy facilities. He tracks the 40bp jump in UK two‑year gilts and shifting central bank tones. He also parses Australia’s jobs data showing higher unemployment alongside rising participation and strong employment.

Thursday 19th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skye Masters, NAB market economist and strategist, explains curious global risk-on moves. She unpacks why yields fell and stocks rallied amid tanker and oil-supply chatter. There is discussion of political signals, the looming RBA rate decision, and surprisingly strong Chinese data. Short, sharp takes on FX moves and whether this mild positivity can last.

Ray Attrill, senior FX and markets strategist at NAB, brings sharp macro and currency expertise. He discusses dollar strength and rising bond yields amid the Middle East conflict. They cover why the RBA may hike, multiple central bank dilemmas, commodity-driven Aussie dollar moves, China demand and an iron ore spike. Concerns linger about oil prices and prolonged market uncertainty.

Stuart Upson, Co-President of Brookfield Infrastructure and global AI strategy lead, oversees renewable, nuclear and data center investments. He discusses AI as a technological flywheel and a $7 trillion, decade-long infrastructure opportunity. He covers the shift from data centers to AI compute and data factories, why energy is the key bottleneck, and how large-scale partnerships and contracts de-risk this buildout.

Gavin Friend, NAB markets economist and strategist, outlines the oil surge after Iran rhetoric and the IEA’s huge supply shock. He dissects rising bond yields, repriced rate-cut hopes, and US naval escort prospects for the Straits of Hormuz. He also highlights UK fiscal vulnerability and how a tighter US trade balance could reshape Q1 growth expectations.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior markets economist focused on energy shocks and inflation. He breaks down shipping halts in the Strait of Hormuz and why a 400 million barrel IEA release failed to calm markets. Talks about mine-laying reports, Iran’s warnings about $200 oil, and how surging energy risk is pushing central banks toward tighter policy and consecutive RBA rate hikes.