NAB Morning Call Banks and bombs
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Mar 15, 2026 Ray Attrill, senior FX and markets strategist at NAB, brings sharp macro and currency expertise. He discusses dollar strength and rising bond yields amid the Middle East conflict. They cover why the RBA may hike, multiple central bank dilemmas, commodity-driven Aussie dollar moves, China demand and an iron ore spike. Concerns linger about oil prices and prolonged market uncertainty.
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Oil Spike Is Driving Risk Off And Dollar Strength
- Oil-driven risk-off is the main market mover as Brent breaches $100, pushing dollar strength and equity weakness.
- Ray Attrill points to Brent above $100 and broad DXY gains while ASX, S&P and bond yields fell or rose respectively last week.
Central Banks Will Mostly Pause As War Raises Uncertainty
- Most central banks are likely to delay policy changes because the war raises inflation risk while weakening growth.
- Ray expects the RBA to raise tomorrow but says others will mostly wait and focus on revised forecasts and guidance.
US Growth Weakens While Core Inflation Stays Sticky
- US growth has been revised sharply lower with Q4 GDP and consumption downgraded while core PCE remains sticky near 3.1%.
- Ray contrasts the earlier 4% Atlanta Fed estimate with a new ~0.7% annualised Q4 pace and 0.4% monthly core PCE prints.