NAB Morning Call Oil trapped by Strait’s jacket
Mar 11, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior markets economist focused on energy shocks and inflation. He breaks down shipping halts in the Strait of Hormuz and why a 400 million barrel IEA release failed to calm markets. Talks about mine-laying reports, Iran’s warnings about $200 oil, and how surging energy risk is pushing central banks toward tighter policy and consecutive RBA rate hikes.
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Markets Ignore Reserve Release And Fear Supply Shortages
- Global oil markets priced in disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows despite the IEA releasing 400 million barrels of reserves.
- Rodrigo Catril notes Brent rose ~5% and prices climbed even after the larger-than-expected 400m barrel release, signaling persistent supply fear.
Ship Trackers Show Strait Largely Empty
- Ship-tracking apps show the Strait of Hormuz largely empty with vessels avoiding the area amid Iranian attacks and reported mine-laying attempts.
- Phil Dobby observed no ships on Shipfinder.co and mentioned attacks on three commercial ships and a drone strike on Dubai airport.
Hormuz Disruption Hits More Than Oil
- Disruption in the Strait affects not just oil but LNG and fertilizers, amplifying inflationary and supply-chain risks.
- Rodrigo warns longer stoppages will keep price pressure elevated because multiple cargo types transit the route.