NAB Morning Call D-day for Hormuz
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Mar 22, 2026 Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior market economist, breaks down rapid market moves tied to the Iran–Hormuz standoff. He covers soaring oil, spiking bond yields and currency swings. Topics include US threats to Iranian infrastructure, Iran’s expanded strike reach, energy market risk pricing, and which sectors and currencies could win or lose if tensions persist.
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Markets Are Pricing A Prolonged Energy Shock
- Geopolitical escalation has already forced major market repricing across assets.
- Rodrigo Catril highlights oil above $112, 10-year yields jumping (US 4.38%, UK ~5%), equities down sharply as markets price persistent disruption.
Damaged Oil Fields Could Take Months To Restore
- Energy infrastructure attacks raise the risk of months-long production losses and higher forward oil prices.
- The IEA warns damaged fields could take six months or longer to restore, extending elevated oil curve pricing.
Iran Showed Intermediate Range Strike Capability
- Iran demonstrated longer-range capability by striking near Diego Garcia with intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
- Phil Dobby notes this puts London and much of Europe within Iranian missile reach, changing risk calculations.