NAB Morning Call

Stuart Upson, Co-President of Brookfield Infrastructure and global AI strategy lead, oversees renewable, nuclear and data center investments. He discusses AI as a technological flywheel and a $7 trillion, decade-long infrastructure opportunity. He covers the shift from data centers to AI compute and data factories, why energy is the key bottleneck, and how large-scale partnerships and contracts de-risk this buildout.

Gavin Friend, NAB markets economist and strategist, outlines the oil surge after Iran rhetoric and the IEA’s huge supply shock. He dissects rising bond yields, repriced rate-cut hopes, and US naval escort prospects for the Straits of Hormuz. He also highlights UK fiscal vulnerability and how a tighter US trade balance could reshape Q1 growth expectations.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB senior markets economist focused on energy shocks and inflation. He breaks down shipping halts in the Strait of Hormuz and why a 400 million barrel IEA release failed to calm markets. Talks about mine-laying reports, Iran’s warnings about $200 oil, and how surging energy risk is pushing central banks toward tighter policy and consecutive RBA rate hikes.

Markets swung on oil moves and a sudden surge in corporate bond issuance. Discussion covers geopolitics and comments that briefly lifted risk appetite. The RBA’s unexpectedly hawkish tone and its market implications get attention. China’s strong trade data and softer US Treasury auctions are highlighted as key developments.

Sally Auld, market economist at NAB Markets Research, breaks down the recent oil roller coaster and the G7’s strategic reserve move. She discusses why reserve releases are only a short‑term balm. Short takes cover oil price swings, inflation implications for Australia, the Aussie dollar’s resilience, and how these forces shape central bank choices.

Ken Crompton, NAB markets rates expert and economist, explains moves in bond yields and central bank dilemmas. He discusses oil spiking toward $100 after Middle East strikes and the shock US jobs loss that complicates policy. Short takes cover Australian yield levels, whether the oil shock is transitory, and upcoming US inflation and big bond supply tests.

Anastasia Clarke, CFO of Charter Hall and seasoned real estate finance leader. She recalls pivotal male mentorship and the grit needed to climb ASX ranks. Short takes on shifting women into revenue roles, the 40:40:20 leadership aim, balancing career with young children, and how senior female representation links to Charter Hall’s funds growth.

Markets moved to risk-off as rising Middle East tensions sent oil sharply higher. Bond yields jumped and central banks refocused on persistent inflation risks. Discussion covers Europe’s energy vulnerability, shipping attacks hitting supplies, and shifting expectations around US rate cuts. The show also flags softer Australian household spending and China’s lower growth target, then previews tonight’s US payrolls data.

Ken Crompton, NAB markets economist and strategist, gives quick market commentary and economic analysis. He discusses US ISM strength and the spike in export orders. He explains Asia’s volatility, notably South Korea’s AI-driven KOSPI plunge. He also contrasts China PMI readings and reviews Australia’s growth versus soft household consumption.

Ray Attrill, NAB’s chief market strategist, provides market-savvy analysis of inflation, central bank moves and geopolitical risk. He breaks down how Middle East disruption pushed oil, bonds and currencies, discusses whether energy shocks could trigger stagflation, and assesses ECB and RBA tightening risks. Short takes on China PMIs and the US ISM round out the conversation.