NAB Morning Call War escalates further. Stagflation?
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Mar 3, 2026 Ray Attrill, NAB’s chief market strategist, provides market-savvy analysis of inflation, central bank moves and geopolitical risk. He breaks down how Middle East disruption pushed oil, bonds and currencies, discusses whether energy shocks could trigger stagflation, and assesses ECB and RBA tightening risks. Short takes on China PMIs and the US ISM round out the conversation.
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Energy Shock Is Driving Global Risk Off
- The Middle East escalation is driving a broad risk-off across markets with oil and gas surging while equities and the Aussie fall.
- Ray Attrill points to disrupted Iranian fields, tanker avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi refinery strikes as the catalysts.
Risk Management Liquidations Amplify Currency Moves
- 'Good-for-bad' liquidations are amplifying moves: traders sell winners like the Aussie and gold to cover losses elsewhere.
- Attrill explains VAR breaches force managers to trim profitable positions, explaining gold's unexpected fall.
Strait Closure Could Trigger $100 Oil And Stagflation Risk
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional producers could push oil above $100 if prolonged, raising stagflation risk.
- Attrill notes Iraq and Iran output disruptions plus lack of alternative export routes as key constraints.