NAB Morning Call A Crude Awakening
Mar 8, 2026
Ken Crompton, NAB markets rates expert and economist, explains moves in bond yields and central bank dilemmas. He discusses oil spiking toward $100 after Middle East strikes and the shock US jobs loss that complicates policy. Short takes cover Australian yield levels, whether the oil shock is transitory, and upcoming US inflation and big bond supply tests.
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Middle East Conflict Is Driving Oil Toward $100
- Geopolitical escalation pushed oil sharply higher with WTI up ~12% and Brent ~8.5%, moving both benchmarks toward $100 a barrel.
- Ken Crompton links the jump to attacks on regional oil infrastructure and rising market concern about sustained disruption.
Attacks Extend To Oil And Water Infrastructure
- The conflict is broadening from military targets to civilian oil and desalination infrastructure, raising the chance of longer-term energy disruption.
- Ken Crompton notes attacks around Tehran and Haifa plus Iranian strikes on desalination in Bahrain as signs the shock is not confined to a short flare-up.
US Payrolls Shocked Markets With A Negative Print
- US payrolls unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February and unemployment rose to 4.4%, a much larger miss versus Bloomberg consensus.
- Ken Crompton highlights that even after adjusting for seasonal factors and the births-deaths model the print remained deeply negative.
