NAB Morning Call Reserves add a little light relief
Mar 9, 2026
Sally Auld, market economist at NAB Markets Research, breaks down the recent oil roller coaster and the G7’s strategic reserve move. She discusses why reserve releases are only a short‑term balm. Short takes cover oil price swings, inflation implications for Australia, the Aussie dollar’s resilience, and how these forces shape central bank choices.
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G7 Reserve Talk Temporarily Calms Markets
- G7 talk of releasing strategic reserves briefly calmed oil and bond markets, pulling Brent back below $100 from near $120.
- The announcement alone eased panic even though ministers only signalled readiness rather than immediate large-scale releases.
Reserve Releases Are A Short Term Bandage
- Strategic reserve releases are only a short-term fix because global consumption runs ~100 million barrels per day and proposed releases are a fraction of reserves.
- Sally Auld notes 300–400m barrels might be about a third of reserves, so repeated use quickly depletes them.
Strait Of Hormuz Controls Oil Trajectory
- The real determinant of oil price direction is whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, not market interventions.
- Sally emphasised that until cargoes move through the Strait, supply constraints will keep prices elevated above $100.