NAB Morning Call Risk appetite rises, but why?
Mar 16, 2026
Skye Masters, NAB market economist and strategist, explains curious global risk-on moves. She unpacks why yields fell and stocks rallied amid tanker and oil-supply chatter. There is discussion of political signals, the looming RBA rate decision, and surprisingly strong Chinese data. Short, sharp takes on FX moves and whether this mild positivity can last.
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Risk Appetite Lift Tied To Hope Over Strait Of Hormuz
- Markets showed a mild risk-on move overnight with shares up, yields down and the US dollar weaker.
- Skye Masters links the move to rising hope that oil tankers can traverse the Strait of Hormuz and small signs of easing supply fears rather than a fundamental change in the conflict.
Positive Moves May Be Fragile And Reversible
- The podcast cautions that the positive price action lacks a clear durable catalyst and could reverse quickly.
- Phil Dobby and Skye Masters emphasise that nothing material changed in the Middle East and that market moves may be fragile and sentiment-driven.
Focus On RBA Guidance Not Just The Rate Hike
- Watch the RBA communication, not just the rate decision, for guidance on future tightening and market pricing.
- Skye Masters says markets price about 70bp by year-end while NAB forecasts 4.35% cash rate, so focus on Michelle Bullock's press conference tone.