NAB Morning Call Sounding the TACO bell
Mar 23, 2026
Sally Auld, market economist and NAB Markets Research commentator, breaks down a sudden market wobble tied to US–Iran headline swings. She covers the sharp oil drop and equity bounce, shifting bond yields and central bank hawkishness, and how war-driven costs are squeezing consumer confidence. Short-term hope meets persistent uncertainty as key PMIs and Japan CPI loom.
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Markets React Strongly To Trump Pause
- Markets rallied and oil plunged after President Trump delayed a 48-hour ultimatum, suggesting talks with Iran might be productive.
- The shift triggered near-term risk-on moves: US equities up ~1–1.3% and WTI down about 9.4%, showing sensitivity to geopolitical messaging.
Iran Denies Talks While Tankers Still Move
- Iran denied talks and suggested US claims aim to manipulate energy prices or buy time for military planning.
- Phil noted tankers transiting the Strait were Iranian, hinting limited practical change on the water despite diplomatic claims.
Front End Bonds Lead The Retracement
- Bond yields fell notably after risk sentiment improved, especially at the front end where recent hawkish central bank shifts had driven moves.
- US 10-year yields fell ~6bps and UK/German front ends saw larger retracements amid easing near-term hike bets.