NAB Morning Call Troops. Attacks. And Oil Back on the Rise.
Mar 24, 2026
Skye Masters, NAB markets analyst who covers bonds and commodities, joins to unpack rising oil and surging bond yields amid new Middle East tensions. Short, clear takes on troop movements, shipping risks and shifting central bank reactions. They also flag PMI input‑cost pressures, weak consumer confidence and the market impact of geopolitical uncertainty.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Markets Reprice For A Protracted Middle East Conflict
- Geopolitical escalation is shifting markets from expecting rate cuts to pricing potential rate hikes.
- US troop deployments, fresh Iranian attacks and rising oil pushed bond yields higher and led investors to demand richer yields at the recent US two-year auction.
Tehran Proposes Transit Fees For Shipping
- Phil highlights Tehran's move to charge transit fees for ships, an example of how the conflict can create direct trade costs.
- He cites a proposed $2 million per voyage fee though he notes little transit has occurred yet.
Rising Oil Is Feeding Through Into Business Input Costs
- Higher oil is producing second‑round inflation risks that hit services and push input costs up across firms.
- PMI releases showed input prices surging even where headline activity was softening, signalling inflation persistence.