NAB Morning Call Glimmers of Hope
5 snips
Apr 1, 2026 Taylor Nugent, NAB Markets economist and strategist, breaks down why markets are suddenly upbeat amid ceasefire speculation in Iran. They cover big equity gains, oil dipping, resilient US data like ISM, and supply delays tied to Middle East disruptions. There is also discussion of rising BOJ inflation expectations, choppy Australian building approvals, and what upcoming US payrolls might mean for markets.
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Markets Price Hope For Quick Iran Ceasefire
- Markets rapidly priced in hopes of a near-term ceasefire in the Iran conflict, lifting equities and trimming the US dollar.
- The rally reflected optimism that oil supplies will return soon, but Taylor Nugent warned clarity is still lacking and flows may take time.
Early Rally Extended Then Partially Reversed
- Initial risk-on moves (equities up, yields down) extended from prior-day optimism but some gains have since pared back within hours.
- Taylor observed that while moves extended, US yields remained less responsive due to stronger data releases.
US Data Shows Resilience But Has A Supply Caveat
- Stronger US ISM and retail data pared some of the Fed cut pricing, showing underlying resilience in the US economy.
- Taylor Nugent noted the ISM's supply delivery times jumped, which could reflect Middle East supply disruption rather than pure demand strength.