NAB Morning Call De-escalation? Perhaps.
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Mar 25, 2026 Taylor Nugent, NAB markets economist in Sydney who analyzes geopolitics, inflation and interest rates. They unpack oil and bond reactions to Middle East diplomatic deadlock. They discuss how Iran’s counter-demands shape market risk. They review Australian CPI, the looming fuel-driven spike in March, and central banks’ likely responses.
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Cautious Market Optimism Amid Mixed De‑escalation Signals
- Markets showed cautious optimism because the US signalled a push for talks despite mixed signals like troop movements.
- Taylor Nugent noted intraday volatility with Brent around $100 and risk sentiment improving amid talk of mediators arranging meetings.
Iran Rejection Widens Diplomatic Gap
- Iran rejected the reported US 15‑point plan and issued counter‑demands including control of the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations.
- Phil Dobby emphasised those demands are unlikely to be accepted, leaving the sides far apart and sustaining oil upside risk.
February CPI Eased But March Fuel Shock Looms
- Australian February CPI was slightly softer at 3.7% headline and 3.3% trimmed mean, below NAB and consensus 3.8%.
- Taylor Nugent warned the February print predates a large March fuel surge, which will lift headline inflation materially via a ~30% fuel jump.