NAB Morning Call Walk Away
Mar 31, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, senior markets economist and strategist, gives quick takes on geopolitics, PMIs, inflation and labour signals. He discusses market optimism after reports of U.S. de-escalation with continued Strait of Hormuz risks. He highlights China’s PMI rebound, a Eurozone inflation jump, and signs of softening in the U.S. labour market.
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Markets Rally On Signs US Might Step Back From Iran
- Markets rallied on signs the US may step back from direct military action against Iran, lifting the Nasdaq 3.3% and easing oil prices slightly.
- Rodrigo Catril highlighted the move stemmed from a Wall Street Journal report and comments on Truth Social, not from the Strait of Hormuz reopening itself.
Talks Reduce Risk Premiums Even While Strait Stays Closed
- Talks and signals of an off-ramp from both Iran and the US have reduced immediate risk premia, even as attacks continue on both sides.
- Rodrigo warned the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and reopening is not imminent despite optimism.
Lower Launches Could Reflect Strategy Not Shortage
- Attacks continued including an explosion in Isfahan and a tanker strike off Dubai, but projectile launches may have fallen to the lowest daily number since the war's start.
- Rodrigo suggested Iran may be more strategic rather than running out of munitions.