NAB Morning Call Will they, or won't they?
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Mar 26, 2026 Ray Attrill, senior markets economist at NAB, offers quick market analysis and a brief bio as an experienced strategist. He discusses spikes in Brent oil, geopolitical tensions after a rejected US‑Iran ultimatum, volatility signals like the VIX, central bank hawkish pivots, AUD weakness, shipping risks and possible escalation scenarios. Short, sharp takes on market moves and policy implications.
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US And Iran Plans Have No Overlap
- US and Iranian proposals show no overlap, so diplomatic resolution looks distant.
- Ray Attrill notes Iran rejects talks via intermediaries and the two 15‑point and 5‑point plans are widely apart, implying sustained tension.
Striking Iran's Oil Infrastructure Implies Ground Troops
- A realistic strike on Iran's oil infrastructure likely requires ground forces on Kharg Island.
- Ray Attrill highlights that 'obliteration' of energy facilities implies boots on the ground, raising escalation risk into the weekend.
Market Moves Are Significant But Not Apocalyptic
- Market moves (FX, equities, credit) are moderate relative to full-scale war expectations.
- VIX staying below 30 and limited spikes in defence stocks suggest markets price limited or medium-term disruption, not apocalypse.