Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Tyler Goodspeed, economist and economic historian who chaired the White House CEA, discusses why recessions are not inevitable payback for expansions. He challenges the boom-bust narrative, reframes recessions as often driven by supply shocks and sectoral choke points, and warns against policy hubris. The conversation examines historical patterns, energy and trade shocks, and when targeted relief beats contractionary policy.

Tomasz Nadrowski, portfolio manager and author on critical minerals and geopolitics. He unpacks China’s state-led tactics like VAT rebates and processing limits. He maps choke points in rare earths, graphite and gallium. He warns of Western capital, regulatory and human-capacity gaps. He weighs resilience strategies from just-in-time to just-in-case and spotlights allies that could rebuild supply chains.

Nader Itayim, Middle East editor at Argus Media with 15+ years covering oil and gas, discusses Iran's regional strategy and energy-security risks. He explores why escalation felt inevitable. He maps Iran's decentralised resilience, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, tanker-war and Red Sea threats, and how large production shut-ins strain global supply and spare-capacity options.

Alex Campbell, a 20-year finance and data pro who worked at Bridgewater and Lehman and builds AI-driven investing tools. He talks commodities as portfolio diversification, gold and silver’s distinct roles, copper versus iron in electrification, skepticism around Chinese data, and an AI trade of buying API infrastructure while shorting slide-driven consultancies.

Raphaël Gallardo, Chief Economist at Carmignac and former cross-asset strategist, blends engineering rigor with Austrian economics thinking. He discusses three wobbling bubbles—AI, fiscal and private credit. He contrasts the ‘sad’ AI bubble with 2000, outlines Trump-related risk parity shifts, and covers Europe, Japan, China, and why gold and inflation hedges matter.

Alex Gurevich, founder of HonTe Investments and former JP Morgan global macro trader with a PhD in mathematics, shares big-picture frameworks and trade ideas. He outlines the “swim with the tide” approach, reframes risk management and tight stops, and explains how AI, energy constraints, and a potential Fed return to 0% shape macro opportunities. Short, strategic, and thought-provoking.

Marc Elovitz, Global Head of Investment Management Regulation at McDermott Will & Schulte, explains shifts in private markets, tokenization, and how regulators are aligning around crypto. He discusses stablecoin yield limits, institutional blockchain use cases, and the push for durable digital-asset rules. Marc also tackles AI explainability and governance disputes shaping M&A and corporate law.

Sean McGould, founder and CEO of the Lighthouse Group and former Trout Trading director, discusses multi-strategy investing for stable returns. He covers sourcing and retaining top managers, navigating Trump 2.0 volatility, why AI is a transformative digital tool, redefining value in a digital world, risks in China and Japan’s shareholder pivot, and the 2026 macro and credit outlook.

Srividya Jandhyala, a management professor at ESSEC and author of The Great Disruption, explores how geopolitics now shapes corporate strategy. She discusses the shift from a flat world to structural geopolitical headwinds. Short takes cover corporate nationality trumping product, lessons from mining and energy, the Jenga of accumulating frictions, and how AI and localization are remaking business decisions.

Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, dives into the complexities of the oil market. He discusses Trump's paradoxical influence, exploring how policies have shifted OPEC's actions. The conversation highlights China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a significant demand factor and examines the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply dynamics. Rory also analyzes the future of oil production in Venezuela and Iran, and the looming risks that could shape the market outlook through 2026.