Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris
Mar 27, 2026
Tyler Goodspeed, economist and economic historian who chaired the White House CEA, discusses why recessions are not inevitable payback for expansions. He challenges the boom-bust narrative, reframes recessions as often driven by supply shocks and sectoral choke points, and warns against policy hubris. The conversation examines historical patterns, energy and trade shocks, and when targeted relief beats contractionary policy.
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Tyler's Academic To Policy Career Detour
- Tyler recounts studying both history and economics, earning two PhDs and moving between Oxford, Cambridge, the White House, and Stanford.
- A planned one-year White House stint in 2017 became almost four years, shaping his policy experience.
Recessions Are Not Inevitable Cleansings
- The dominant boom-bust story about recessions is mostly an apophany where we impose false patterns on normal expansions.
- Four centuries of US and UK data show expansion height, speed, or duration do not predict recession depth or length.
No Single Postwar Break Explains Longer Expansions
- There is no clear postwar structural break that made expansions shorter or recessions rarer; expansions lengthened as a long-run trend.
- Statistical breakpoint tests find only a possible 1785 break tied to post-Revolution recovery, not 1913 or WWII.
