Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity
27 snips
Feb 27, 2026 Raphaël Gallardo, Chief Economist at Carmignac and former cross-asset strategist, blends engineering rigor with Austrian economics thinking. He discusses three wobbling bubbles—AI, fiscal and private credit. He contrasts the ‘sad’ AI bubble with 2000, outlines Trump-related risk parity shifts, and covers Europe, Japan, China, and why gold and inflation hedges matter.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
AI Productivity Requires Rationed CapEx
- AI is a general-purpose technology likely to boost productivity, but central banks letting capex inflate risks misallocation and later inflation from rising input costs.
- Greenspan should have tightened sooner in the 1990s; similarly, Gallardo says central banks should ration CapEx enthusiasm to smooth transition.
The Saddest Bubble Because Consumers Are Fearful
- Unlike the dot-com era, the current AI bubble coexists with depressed consumer sentiment, making it 'the saddest bubble' because people fear job displacement and monetization is unclear.
- Market P/Es mirror 2000 levels while Michigan consumer confidence is very low.
Construct A Trump Risk Parity Portfolio
- Gallardo's 'Trump risk parity' allocation: be short US duration, underweight US equities, and add inflation hedges like gold, commodity currencies, and safe-haven FX.
- Balance risk by holding inflation proxies and safe currencies rather than only bonds.
