Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption
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Mar 13, 2026 Nader Itayim, Middle East editor at Argus Media with 15+ years covering oil and gas, discusses Iran's regional strategy and energy-security risks. He explores why escalation felt inevitable. He maps Iran's decentralised resilience, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, tanker-war and Red Sea threats, and how large production shut-ins strain global supply and spare-capacity options.
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New Supreme Leader Emerged With IRGC Backing
- Masha al-Khamenei's rise was backed by IRGC and Basij despite earlier dismissal as an unlikely successor.
- Itayim notes the new supreme leader has been largely absent publicly and may be injured, adding uncertainty.
Iran Targeted Gulf Infrastructure To Maximise Pain
- Iran expanded targets beyond military assets to Gulf infrastructure and civilian-linked facilities to raise pain.
- Itayim cites hits on Fujairah storage and major refineries as deliberate choices to pressure Gulf states and global trade.
Hormuz Traffic Has Collapsed And Escorts Are Limited
- The Strait of Hormuz is effectively choked as shipping has fallen from ~130–150 ships to single digits.
- Itayim warns naval escorts and insurance are limited fixes because modern drones and projectiles make convoys bigger targets.