Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis
14 snips
Feb 20, 2026 
Alex Gurevich, founder of HonTe Investments and former JP Morgan global macro trader with a PhD in mathematics, shares big-picture frameworks and trade ideas. He outlines the “swim with the tide” approach, reframes risk management and tight stops, and explains how AI, energy constraints, and a potential Fed return to 0% shape macro opportunities. Short, strategic, and thought-provoking.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Reissuing The Book As A Time Test
- Alex republished his 2015 book without changing original chapters to let readers judge his prior ideas objectively.
- He added contemporary comments so readers can see which principles survived a decade-long test of time.
Prefer Necessary Over Sufficient Bets
- Bet on outcomes that are necessary for your thesis, not on scenarios that are merely sufficient.
- That widens the range of paths where your trade will succeed and reduces dependency on single triggers.
Decompose Japan Trades Into Concurrent Bets
- Long-dated JGBs plus currency exposure can be decomposed into parallel trades with different payoff drivers.
- Rising short rates in Japan could still leave long-end gains intact and strengthen the yen, helping the combined position.
