Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach
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Mar 6, 2026 Alex Campbell, a 20-year finance and data pro who worked at Bridgewater and Lehman and builds AI-driven investing tools. He talks commodities as portfolio diversification, gold and silver’s distinct roles, copper versus iron in electrification, skepticism around Chinese data, and an AI trade of buying API infrastructure while shorting slide-driven consultancies.
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Increase Diversification And Seek Convex Hedges
- Do increase portfolio diversification deliberately; seek uncorrelated or negatively correlated assets and convex payoffs that rise when others fall.
- Alex argues many investors overweight US equities and miss the 'free lunch' of diversification via commodities and other asset streams.
Futures Curve Drives Commodities Returns
- Commodity futures include curve and term-structure return drivers, so plain index exposure often hides where returns come from.
- Alex warns many returns derive from backwardation/contango and curve bets, making simple futures positions unintuitive and risky.
Hold Gold As Structural Hedge But Size Carefully
- Consider a meaningful structural allocation to gold as a hedge against credit or currency stress, but manage position size for volatility.
- Alex historically suggested 15–30% denominated in non-dollar terms (e.g., RMB) to hedge Chinese credit risk and reserve shifts.
