Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience
Mar 20, 2026
Tomasz Nadrowski, portfolio manager and author on critical minerals and geopolitics. He unpacks China’s state-led tactics like VAT rebates and processing limits. He maps choke points in rare earths, graphite and gallium. He warns of Western capital, regulatory and human-capacity gaps. He weighs resilience strategies from just-in-time to just-in-case and spotlights allies that could rebuild supply chains.
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Spheronization Is The Graphite Gatekeeper
- Graphite choke point is spheronization used for battery anodes and requires collocated chemical and steel plants.
- China's special economic zones and dense industrial co-location make spheronization cheap and hard for the West to replicate.
Gallium Depends On Alumina Refining
- Gallium is a byproduct of alumina refining and China refines almost all alumina output into gallium, producing ~99% of global supply.
- The West lacks alumina refinery lines to extract gallium, creating a structural dependency.
Policy, Politics, And Capital Broke Western Mining
- The West's loss of upstream capacity stems from regulatory barriers, political resistance to dirty industries, and the collapse of specialist mining capital.
- Examples include NRC radiation rules on thorium and mining funds shrinking massively in London and Toronto.
