At Any Rate

Octavia Popescu, Nordic/Swiss FX strategist with central-bank intervention expertise; James Nelligan, G10 FX strategist focused on BoE and ECB policy; Arindam Sandilya, EM FX strategist tracking dollar, options and oil spillovers. They discuss oil-driven shocks and recession risk. They explore how Iran tensions push dollar dynamics, option-market warnings versus muted spot moves, and policy reactions across BoE, ECB, Riksbank and SNB.

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM sovereign credit strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers sovereign credit and spread analysis. Anezka Christovova, Head of IMEA EM and LATAM local market strategy at J.P. Morgan, covers FX, rates and local market moves. They discuss conflict-driven market shocks, rates vs FX sensitivity, idiosyncratic local opportunities and Venezuela’s recent market dynamics.

Ben Jarman, Australian rates strategist focused on AUD swap spreads. Takafumi Yamawaki, Japan rates strategist tracking JGB supply and fiscal risks. Francis Diamond, U.K. rates strategist on BOE policy and political premia. Ipek Ozil, U.S. rates strategist covering volatility, carry trades and geopolitical shocks. They discuss drivers of DM swap spreads, curve dynamics across markets, and key risks that could shift spreads.

Aditya Chordia, rates strategist at J.P. Morgan focused on European markets, and Jay Barry, head of international rate strategy at J.P. Morgan, analyze central bank moves and market positioning. They discuss recent yield sell-offs, drivers behind US front-end moves, Fed and ECB meeting dynamics, curve and five-year behavior, scenario-driven German yield paths, and UK rate implications as the Middle East conflict unfolds.

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers market analysis on metals supply and trade disruptions amid the Middle East conflict. He discusses shipping delays, infrastructure attacks and their effects on aluminium and other metals. Short-term production cuts, regional exposure in Asia and Europe, and mitigation steps like rerouting and strategic releases are covered.

James Nelligan, a London-based FX strategist on European currencies; Patrick Locke, a U.S.-based FX strategist covering the Americas; and Sarindam Sandhilya, an Asia-focused global FX strategist, discuss energy-driven shocks and who is most exposed. They debate a tactical dollar turnaround, central bank calendars across DM markets, and how Asia and China might weather the storm.

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers quick takes on sovereign valuations and spread vulnerability. Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, explains EMFX resilience and local rates stress. They discuss the Middle East shock timeline, oil flow risks, where to add local risk, and sovereign winners and laggards.

Nelson Janssen, Head of High Yield Bond and Leveraged Loan Strategy at J.P. Morgan, explains loan vs bond stress and software-related credit risks. Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Credit Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan, breaks down financing for AI data centers and energy market reactions. They discuss capital flows into AI projects, sector-specific default outlooks, and where distress is appearing across credit markets.

Otar Dgebuadze, head of the European Natural Gas Team and global LNG researcher, explains how conflict is disrupting Strait of Hormuz transit and straining LNG logistics. He discusses tanker congestion, which volumes are at risk, why Qatar matters, and the differing restart timelines for oil versus LNG. Short, focused take on supply risks and market dynamics.

Anezka Christovova, EMEA EM local markets head, spots LatAm and EMIA vulnerability and recovery plays. Arindam Sandilya, EM/Asia FX strategist, reviews Asia defense and high-beta risks like CNY, SGD, KRW. Patrick Locke, Global FX strategist, links CAD and rates to energy and US data. James Nelligan, G10 FX strategist, focuses on Scandi and commodity-linked currency dynamics. They map escalation and recovery candidates.