At Any Rate Global FX: The best escalation and recovery candidates
Mar 6, 2026
Anezka Christovova, EMEA EM local markets head, spots LatAm and EMIA vulnerability and recovery plays. Arindam Sandilya, EM/Asia FX strategist, reviews Asia defense and high-beta risks like CNY, SGD, KRW. Patrick Locke, Global FX strategist, links CAD and rates to energy and US data. James Nelligan, G10 FX strategist, focuses on Scandi and commodity-linked currency dynamics. They map escalation and recovery candidates.
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Energy Shock Can Reverse Dollar Bear Case
- Meera Chandan warns the Iran-driven energy shock questions the dollar's bearish backdrop by threatening global growth momentum that supported dollar weakness since last March.
- In a stress scenario with Brent at $100–$120, Meera estimates USD could trade around 110–113, with outcomes hinging on shock duration.
Norwegian Krone Stands Out In An Escalation
- James Nelligan flags NOK as an escalation outperformer given Norway's terms-of-trade boost and fair-value upside despite recent deleveraging.
- He cites Norges Bank's surprise hawkishness and expected February inflation print as drivers sustaining NOK strength.
Avoid Tactical Longs In Swedish Krona
- James Nelligan advises against tactically buying SEK despite de-escalation given dividend season, weak growth/inflation, and Riksbank pushback on appreciation.
- He recommends EUR as a better recovery candidate while NOK can still hold on reduced risk premia.