At Any Rate Global Commodities: Mind the Metals
Mar 13, 2026
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers market analysis on metals supply and trade disruptions amid the Middle East conflict. He discusses shipping delays, infrastructure attacks and their effects on aluminium and other metals. Short-term production cuts, regional exposure in Asia and Europe, and mitigation steps like rerouting and strategic releases are covered.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Strait Of Hormuz Is Causing Broad Commodity Shock
- The Strait of Hormuz disruption is already causing unprecedented global supply shocks across energy and commodities.
- About 20% of global oil, 20% of LNG trade, 30% of seaborne fertilizers and 9% of aluminum production rely on flows through the strait, amplifying risk.
Shipping Lags Make Oil Tightness Delayed But Severe
- Physical tightness in oil markets lags incidents by weeks due to shipping transit times.
- Tankers leaving the strait before attacks mean Asia felt cuts ~2 weeks after and Europe ~3 weeks, so supply pain escalates over time.
Aluminum Vulnerability From Alumina Shortages
- Aluminum is particularly exposed because a large share of ex-China demand flows from the Middle East through the strait.
- Smelters hold only ~20–30 days of alumina, so alumina shipment disruptions could trigger rapid smelter curtailments and long restart times.