At Any Rate Global FX: Winds of change for the dollar
9 snips
Mar 13, 2026 
James Nelligan, a London-based FX strategist on European currencies; Patrick Locke, a U.S.-based FX strategist covering the Americas; and Sarindam Sandhilya, an Asia-focused global FX strategist, discuss energy-driven shocks and who is most exposed. They debate a tactical dollar turnaround, central bank calendars across DM markets, and how Asia and China might weather the storm.
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Time Is The Crucial Variable For The Dollar Outlook
- The duration of elevated energy prices is the key macro risk driving FX moves and can force a re-evaluation of prior dollar-bear views.
- Meera Chandan warns prolonged supply disruptions boost exporters' terms of trade and push investors toward the dollar as a yield and safe-haven hedge.
Adopt Tactical Dollar Positions Not Long-Term Convictions
- Take a tactical approach to FX positioning given fluid geopolitics and rising dollar upside risks.
- Meera Chandan says they neutralized then turned more bullish on the dollar and recommend cautious, short-term positioning given uncertainty.
ECB Hikes Could Make The Euro More Vulnerable
- ECB rate hikes could be growth-negative for the euro bloc when combined with energy import shocks, so hawkish signals may actually weaken the euro.
- Meera Chandan argues hikes add to the growth hit from higher energy costs, making hawkish ECB guidance a red herring for EUR support.