At Any Rate Global Commodities: Oil and Gas Rocked by Conflict
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Mar 6, 2026 Otar Dgebuadze, head of the European Natural Gas Team and global LNG researcher, explains how conflict is disrupting Strait of Hormuz transit and straining LNG logistics. He discusses tanker congestion, which volumes are at risk, why Qatar matters, and the differing restart timelines for oil versus LNG. Short, focused take on supply risks and market dynamics.
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Strait Of Hormuz Is A Choke Point For Global Oil
- The Strait of Hormuz currently carries about 19 million barrels per day, roughly 20% of global oil flows.
- Transit rates fell to about 7% of historical daily averages, effectively stalling Gulf exports and hitting multiple commodity chains.
Qatar And UAE Represent Significant LNG Risk
- About 100 bcm/year of LNG exports (roughly 16–17% of global traded LNG) originate from Qatar and the UAE and are at risk.
- LNG tanker counts in the Gulf are far lower than oil — only ~15–20 vessels — and LNG storage on ships is limited by boil-off.
Storage Limits Force Rapid Oil Shut Ins
- Producers have limited onshore storage so a Strait closure forces rapid fill-ups and then production cuts within days to weeks.
- J.P. Morgan estimates roughly 16 mb/d could need to be cut if flows remain blocked.