At Any Rate

James Nelligan, J.P. Morgan FX and macro analyst, joins to dissect currency moves after the US–Iran ceasefire. They cover the immediate relief rally and oil’s plunge. James explains why the dollar stayed muted, the role of risk premia versus terms-of-trade, and medium-term political risks to the dollar. Regional deep dives include Europe and Scandi currencies, plus AUD, NZD, JPY and CNY reactions.

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy at J.P. Morgan, explains GSIB surcharges and Basel III Endgame changes. She breaks down effects on repo and funding mechanics. Short-term averaging, smaller surcharge steps, and redesigned short-term wholesale funding are highlighted. Discussion covers year-end dynamics, repo capacity limits, and likely next steps in regulation.

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, discuss EM fixed income responses to a two-week ceasefire. They debate conflict trajectory and market reactions. Topics include EM FX resilience, oil-driven inflation risks, sovereign spreads and carry, and country-level winners and value opportunities.

Greg Shearer, metals strategist focused on supply shocks and precious metals dynamics. Otar Dgebuadze, European gas specialist tracking LNG flows and storage. They unpack strikes on metal plants, aluminum restart risks and possible deficits. They also cover strained LNG deliveries, low European storage and rerouting risks after Red Sea disruptions.

Jainik Mody, CFA, an EM equities and cross-asset strategist at J.P. Morgan, joins to unpack macro and FX complacency. They discuss geopolitical and cyclical risks to FX, energy-driven terms-of-trade effects, vulnerable European and EM currencies, and positioning for EM equities with a barbell between energy, quality growth, and defensive yield stocks.

Meera Chandan, FX strategist focusing on currency moves amid energy shocks. Fabio Bassi, cross-asset strategist on risk assets and portfolio positioning. Nora Szentivanyi, macroeconomist on growth, inflation, and policy. Natasha Kaneva, commodities strategist on oil, shipping, and gold. They discuss oil flow-to-stock dynamics, commodity price scenarios, macro and inflation impacts, risk-asset outlooks, and FX winners and losers.

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers takes on EM credit spreads and sovereign stress. Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, breaks down EM local rates, FX moves and central bank reactions. They discuss conflict timeframes and scenarios, rates and curve dynamics, credit spread behavior, and EMFX entry considerations.

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers market-savvy perspective on metals. He walks through oil supply timelines and rerouting risks across regions. He flags refinery responses and early demand destruction in Asia. He also discusses gold’s recent technical bounce and what could drive its medium-term path.

Antonin Delair, a systematic FX strategist who specializes in carry and signal-based trades, and Ladislav Jankovic, an FX volatility strategist, discuss FX impacts from inflation, yield dispersion, momentum signals, and elevated volatility tied to geopolitical noise. They cover carry basket behavior, real versus nominal carry, dollar-centric vol dynamics, skew and cross-vol pockets, and thematic strategy performance.

Otar Dgebuadze, a European natural gas analyst focused on LNG and regional flows. Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy tracking metals moves and outlooks. They unpack strikes on energy infrastructure and Qatar LNG damage. They cover Asian fuel shortages, base metals weakness, and why gas and oil benchmarks are diverging.