At Any Rate Global Commodities: Timing the Global Impact
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Mar 27, 2026 Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers market-savvy perspective on metals. He walks through oil supply timelines and rerouting risks across regions. He flags refinery responses and early demand destruction in Asia. He also discusses gold’s recent technical bounce and what could drive its medium-term path.
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Strait Of Hormuz Control Creates Major Flow Shock
- Iran is effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz and selectively allowing only negligible tanker passage, freezing ~16 million barrels per year of supply from global markets.
- That flow constraint forces rerouting and maxes regional pipeline capacity, turning a flow shock into broader supply shortfalls and higher prices.
Policy Releases Won't Close Large Supply Gap
- Even with policy measures, a roughly 10 million barrels per day supply shortfall is likely, leaving higher prices and demand destruction as the main adjustment.
- Coordinated SPR releases add ~2.1 mbd and China plus smaller stock releases and Russia/Iran floating barrels only partially offset the gap.
Monitor SPR Releases And Inventory Signals
- Expect refiners to cut runs and countries with inventories to release measured stocks; plan for short-term supply boosts but limited duration.
- Monitor SPR coordination and conditional guidance from China and regional inventory holders.