At Any Rate Global FX: The beginning of the end?
Apr 10, 2026
James Nelligan, J.P. Morgan FX and macro analyst, joins to dissect currency moves after the US–Iran ceasefire. They cover the immediate relief rally and oil’s plunge. James explains why the dollar stayed muted, the role of risk premia versus terms-of-trade, and medium-term political risks to the dollar. Regional deep dives include Europe and Scandi currencies, plus AUD, NZD, JPY and CNY reactions.
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Relief Rally Was Uneven Across Asset Classes
- Markets showed rapid risk-on rallies after the US–Iran ceasefire, with equities and credit recovering faster than commodities and rates.
- Arindam Sandilya highlights oil fell ~20% from intra-week highs, equities retraced large sell-offs while commodities lag due to real supply outages.
Dollar's Safe Haven Bid Was Tactical Not Structural
- The dollar's left-tail safe-haven bid was muted because the bullish view was tactical and not structural, and markets suspected a political cave-in from Trump.
- James Nelligan notes risk premium and equity underperformance influenced FX more than simple terms-of-trade beta to oil.
Hedge Ratios And Equity Performance Tempered Dollar Moves
- Investors' FX hedge ratios and US equity underperformance suppressed the dollar's expected rally during the conflict.
- James points out longer-term investors may reassess dollar hedge weights because the dollar didn't behave as a perfect risk-off asset.