At Any Rate In Focus: Middle East Conflict
Apr 1, 2026
Meera Chandan, FX strategist focusing on currency moves amid energy shocks. Fabio Bassi, cross-asset strategist on risk assets and portfolio positioning. Nora Szentivanyi, macroeconomist on growth, inflation, and policy. Natasha Kaneva, commodities strategist on oil, shipping, and gold. They discuss oil flow-to-stock dynamics, commodity price scenarios, macro and inflation impacts, risk-asset outlooks, and FX winners and losers.
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Oil Shock Will Roll East To West Along Shipping Timelines
- Oil shock is shifting from a flow problem to a stock depletion problem driven by shipping times.
- Asia feels shortages first (10–20 days), Europe next (20–35 days) and the US last (35–45 days) because of voyage times and regional inventories.
Europe Feels Higher Prices Not Immediate Shortages
- Europe faces price pressure and competition with Asia rather than immediate physical scarcity due to higher inventories and alternate supplies.
- European refiners are redirecting gasoline to Asia where margins are higher, amplifying European price exposure.
Sustained Disruption Could Lift Oil And Eventually Gold
- Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could push oil to ~$120/bbl or higher if it persists past May.
- Gold initially sold off with risk-on moves, but extended energy-driven inflation and Fed easing could drive gold toward $6,000 by year-end.