At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Still waiting for the conflict to pass over
6 snips
Mar 31, 2026 Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers takes on EM credit spreads and sovereign stress. Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, breaks down EM local rates, FX moves and central bank reactions. They discuss conflict timeframes and scenarios, rates and curve dynamics, credit spread behavior, and EMFX entry considerations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Four To Six Week Base Case For Conflict
- The team holds a four-to-six week base case for the US–Iran conflict while acknowledging substantial uncertainty.
- Jonny Goulden cites reported target counts and military statements suggesting the campaign's systematic targeting fits that timeline.
Stay Light In Local Markets Until Clarity
- Be cautious in local markets and stay light in FX and rates until clearer endgame signals emerge.
- Jonny Goulden explains they kept light local views since week one and preferred patience over premature positioning.
Curve Flattening And Steepening Reflects Competing Risks
- EM short-term yields have flattened while the curve steepened between two and ten years, reflecting shifting inflation versus growth concerns.
- Anezka Christovova notes one-to-two year yields fell recently, while five- and ten-year moves embedded medium-term inflation risk.