At Any Rate Global FX - Feelin ‘22
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Mar 27, 2026 Antonin Delair, a systematic FX strategist who specializes in carry and signal-based trades, and Ladislav Jankovic, an FX volatility strategist, discuss FX impacts from inflation, yield dispersion, momentum signals, and elevated volatility tied to geopolitical noise. They cover carry basket behavior, real versus nominal carry, dollar-centric vol dynamics, skew and cross-vol pockets, and thematic strategy performance.
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Energy Importers Vulnerable If Conflict Prolongs
- Prolonged US–Iran conflict would likely hurt energy-importer G10 FX like euro, sterling, krona, and kiwi as risk-off and higher energy costs persist.
- James Nelligan highlights a market switch from terms-of-trade to equity beta that amplifies downside for cyclicals if negotiations break down.
Carry Performs In High Inflation Moderate Growth
- Moderate growth with high inflation favors carry strategies rather than stagflation losses, but carry quality matters across currencies.
- James Nelligan contrasts "healthy carry" like NOK/AUD with "unhealthy carry" such as sterling facing political and labor risks.
Wait For Negotiation Outcomes Before Betting NOK
- Avoid assuming energy-exporter strength will always hold; watch equity beta taking precedence over terms of trade after initial shocks.
- James Nelligan recommends waiting for weekend negotiation outcomes before committing to NOK positions amid equity risk.