At Any Rate Global Rates: Where next for CB and rates as the Middle-East conflict persists?
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Mar 13, 2026 
Aditya Chordia, rates strategist at J.P. Morgan focused on European markets, and Jay Barry, head of international rate strategy at J.P. Morgan, analyze central bank moves and market positioning. They discuss recent yield sell-offs, drivers behind US front-end moves, Fed and ECB meeting dynamics, curve and five-year behavior, scenario-driven German yield paths, and UK rate implications as the Middle East conflict unfolds.
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Why US Short Rates Jumped Suddenly
- U.S. front-end yields rose because markets repriced Fed easing and technical positioning flipped short.
- Jay Barry cites core PCE strength, positioning (CTAs flipping), and reduced Treasury liquidity as key drivers of the move.
Focus On Fed Dots And Press Conference Not A Rate Move
- Watch the Fed's dot plot, vote and Powell's press conference for guidance rather than an immediate rate decision.
- Jay Barry says the new projections and the likely clean vote will reinforce a 'patient' stance and keep markets focused on energy developments.
Five Year Sector Is Key Tactical Vulnerability
- The five-year sector is unusually rich versus the curve and often leads directionally when markets reprice Fed policy.
- Jay Barry notes five-year outperformance hasn't corrected, implying risk of intermediate underperformance next.