Hold Your Fire!

Ali Vaez, Iran expert, outlines Tehran's leadership shift and limited off-ramps. Yasmine Farouk, Gulf director, maps divergent Gulf state responses. Mairav Zonszein, Israel analyst, explains durable public support and strategic aims. Stephen Pomper, policy chief, and Michael Wahid Hanna, U.S. director, assess Washington's decision-making, narrow counsel and the high risk of further escalation.

Ivan Briscoe, Senior policy director at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, Director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group, discuss U.S. pressure on Cuba and recent shifts in Venezuela. They cover Washington’s oil blockade and its effects, reported talks between U.S. and Cuban figures, power structures in Havana, Venezuela’s changing oil revenues, and the region’s political reactions.

Rob Malley, former Crisis Group president and U.S. Iran envoy, offers seasoned U.S.-Iran diplomacy perspective. David Wood, Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert, gives on-the-ground analysis of Lebanon and Hezbollah. They discuss why Hezbollah struck, Israel’s military aims in Lebanon, civilian impacts and displacement, U.S.-Israel alignment against Iran, Iran’s calibrated responses, Gulf states’ calculations and paths to a ceasefire.

Michael Wahid Hanna, a U.S. policy analyst; Mairav Zonszein, an Israel specialist; Yasmine Farouk, a Gulf affairs expert; and Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst. They discuss intense strikes and communications blackouts in Iran. Gulf states’ defensive dilemmas and missile/drone impacts. Israeli public mood and Lebanon operations. U.S. motives, domestic politics and the murky decision-making behind involvement.

Yasmin Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director at Crisis Group, outlines Gulf capitals' reactions and regional security dilemmas. Ali Vaez, Iran director at Crisis Group, analyzes Tehran’s leadership shakeup, missile and nuclear risks, and escalation dynamics. They cover targeted strikes, Iran’s rapid retaliation, threats to shipping, and Gulf responses in multiple short, focused conversations.

Murithi Mutiga, Africa Director at the International Crisis Group and Horn of Africa analyst, outlines rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the legacy of recent wars. He surveys Tigray’s fragmentation, Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access, and how Gulf rivalries and Sudan’s conflict could widen the fight. He also considers shifting regional alliances and prospects for mid‑sized power coalitions.

Joshua Kucera, senior South Caucasus analyst who tracks Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, outlines the push for a TRIPP transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. He discusses Vance’s diplomatic visit, sovereignty and customs proposals, unresolved logistics and security questions, whether the route can run before a full peace treaty, and the shifting roles of Turkey, Iran, Russia and the EU.

Max Rodenbeck, Crisis Group Israel-Palestine director, offers regional diplomatic analysis. Mairav Zonszein, Israel analyst, explains Israeli politics and reactions. Amjad Iraqi, Palestine analyst, outlines Gaza governance and humanitarian realities. They discuss the Board of Peace structure, Gaza’s technocratic committee, ceasefire violence, sequencing of disarmament versus troop withdrawal, and prospects for international stabilization.

Espen Barth Eide, Norway's foreign minister and former defence minister and UN advisor, brings Arctic and diplomatic expertise. He discusses Greenland tensions and how Norway helped de-escalate them. He talks Arctic security realities, direct Russia-Ukraine talks and what credible guarantees might look like. He also covers Trump’s Board of Peace, Gaza governance, Iran risks and Venezuela’s raid.

Steve Pomper, Crisis Group policy chief on NATO and transatlantic strategy; Olga Oliker, Europe and Central Asia director focused on European security; Richard Gowan, analyst of multilateral diplomacy. They debate a U.S. Board of Peace with a widened global remit and its risks to the UN. They also unpack the Greenland spat, transatlantic strain, implications for Ukraine, and how European leaders might respond.