Hold Your Fire! Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Start a Regional War?
Feb 28, 2026
Murithi Mutiga, Africa Director at the International Crisis Group and Horn of Africa analyst, outlines rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the legacy of recent wars. He surveys Tigray’s fragmentation, Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access, and how Gulf rivalries and Sudan’s conflict could widen the fight. He also considers shifting regional alliances and prospects for mid‑sized power coalitions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tadesse Waredi Stuck In An Impossible Middle
- Tadesse Waredi, a respected former military chief, was appointed as Addis's compromise representative in Tigray but faces an impossible balancing act.
- He condemned unauthorized clashes and lacks appetite for war while salaries and federal subventions to Tigray are delayed.
Former Enemies United By Isolation Calculus
- Eritrea and the TPLF Old Guard forming ties is extraordinary given decades of vicious conflict and atrocities between them.
- The alliance reflects isolation calculations by the Old Guard rather than ideological alignment, raising unpredictability.
Sea Access Is Economic Need And Sovereignty Flashpoint
- Ethiopia's push for sea access is both economic and strategic, but Eritrea sees any Ethiopian presence on its coast as a sovereignty threat.
- Addis seeks a naval presence and argues Djibouti access is costly; neighbors could offer integrated port solutions if politics allowed.