Hold Your Fire! Escalation or off-Ramp in the Gulf? And What Hope for a Ceasefire in Lebanon?
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Mar 14, 2026 Rob Malley, former Crisis Group president and U.S. Iran envoy, offers seasoned U.S.-Iran diplomacy perspective. David Wood, Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert, gives on-the-ground analysis of Lebanon and Hezbollah. They discuss why Hezbollah struck, Israel’s military aims in Lebanon, civilian impacts and displacement, U.S.-Israel alignment against Iran, Iran’s calibrated responses, Gulf states’ calculations and paths to a ceasefire.
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Israel's Military Goals Are Clear But Endgame Is Unclear
- Israel's declared aim is removing Hezbollah as a threat, but its end-state remains unclear: tougher ceasefire terms, a long buffer zone, or rooting out Hezbollah entirely.
- Ground raids and commando helicopter insertions suggest Israel may prefer targeted strikes over a full-scale occupation.
Lebanese State Lacks Capacity To Enforce Disarmament
- Lebanon's government outlawed Hezbollah's military activity yet cannot realistically disarm it because the Lebanese army is under-resourced and risks desertions.
- Deploying the army against Hezbollah could shatter the army's cohesion and destabilise Lebanon further.
Shia Support For Hezbollah Is Uncertain And Driven By Fear
- Popular support for Hezbollah among Lebanese Shia is unclear: exhaustion from repeated displacement coexists with expectations of resistance against Israeli attacks.
- The Lebanese state lacks leverage to satisfy either Israel's demand for disarmament or Hezbollah's security concerns, trapping both sides.