Hold Your Fire! A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus?
Feb 20, 2026
Joshua Kucera, senior South Caucasus analyst who tracks Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, outlines the push for a TRIPP transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. He discusses Vance’s diplomatic visit, sovereignty and customs proposals, unresolved logistics and security questions, whether the route can run before a full peace treaty, and the shifting roles of Turkey, Iran, Russia and the EU.
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Mutual Recognition Is Core Of Deal
- The peace text centers on mutual recognition of territorial integrity and avoiding future claims.
- Kucera notes ambiguity around Azerbaijan's references to 'Western Azerbaijan' has worried Armenians.
Constitutional Language Blocks Signature
- A main sticking point is Armenia's constitution language touching Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan's demand for its removal.
- Kucera explains constitutional change risks a referendum Armenians may resist, complicating immediate signature.
Defeat Reshaped Armenian Strategy
- Pashinyan pursued peace partly from recognizing Armenia's weakened position after losing Karabakh.
- Kucera says this shift also undercuts domestic opposition built on Karabakh politics.