Hold Your Fire!

Is Cuba Next?

Mar 20, 2026
Ivan Briscoe, Senior policy director at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, Director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group, discuss U.S. pressure on Cuba and recent shifts in Venezuela. They cover Washington’s oil blockade and its effects, reported talks between U.S. and Cuban figures, power structures in Havana, Venezuela’s changing oil revenues, and the region’s political reactions.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Oil Blockade Drives Cuba's Humanitarian Crisis

  • The U.S. blockade has focused primarily on cutting oil shipments, triggering nationwide blackouts, water shortages and disrupted garbage collection in Havana.
  • Humanitarian aid has been allowed, but oil deliveries remain blocked, worsening power and food distribution problems.
INSIGHT

High Frustration But Unclear Popular Power

  • Popular frustration in Cuba is high but hard to measure because it's a one-party authoritarian state with repressed opposition.
  • Recent daily protests and large migration (≈1.5 million over 5–6 years) signal deep discontent amid worsening living conditions.
ANECDOTE

1993 Special Period Memory Versus Today's Mood

  • Renata recalls visiting Cuba in 1993 during the 'Special Period' when people still felt attachment to the revolution despite hardship.
  • She contrasts that with recent conversations where Cubans blame both U.S. policy and regime failures and show far less loyalty.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app