Hold Your Fire! Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader
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Mar 1, 2026 
Yasmin Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director at Crisis Group, outlines Gulf capitals' reactions and regional security dilemmas. Ali Vaez, Iran director at Crisis Group, analyzes Tehran’s leadership shakeup, missile and nuclear risks, and escalation dynamics. They cover targeted strikes, Iran’s rapid retaliation, threats to shipping, and Gulf responses in multiple short, focused conversations.
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Nuclear Risk Rooted In Existing Enriched Stockpile
- Iran fortified buried nuclear sites like Isfahan and activity at Pixax Mountain suggested tunneling, but no public evidence of resumed enrichment.
- The main nuclear worry is the existing ~0.5 ton of 60% enriched uranium, hard to strike and dangerous if unsecured.
Iran Struck Gulf Early To Maximize Regional Pressure
- Iran launched dozens of missiles at Israel and more at Gulf states, surprising analysts who expected Gulf hits later.
- Vaez suggests either U.S. neutralized some Iranian capacity or Iran is playing an endurance game, holding stronger systems back.
Missile Versus Interceptor Attrition Creates Strategic Risk
- The confrontation is a race of missiles versus interceptors with finite interceptor stockpiles; attrition could create strategic vulnerabilities for the U.S. later.
- Vaez warns burning U.S. interceptors in this conflict risks defense gaps elsewhere.