UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Markets treat ceasefire news as proof the conflict is ending, fueling optimism about oil and rates. Discussion focuses on unresolved sticking points like Iran’s demands and Lebanon’s role. Analysis covers why US policy shifted, domestic political pressures, and how reconstruction money may flow to Asia and Europe. Expect reassessments of Gulf defense sourcing and shifts toward renewables, storage, and drone-focused defense.

Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager and head of the US private client equity team at UBS Asset Management, gives market commentary and portfolio positioning color. He discusses recent market volatility drivers, oil’s impact on growth and inflation, earnings trends and AI strength in semiconductors, leadership rotation from mega-cap tech to cyclicals and defensives, and current portfolio opportunity areas.

Discussion of risks to regional infrastructure from US–Iran tensions and how attacks could threaten drinking water in Gulf states. Analysis of how damage to oil facilities could keep prices high even after Strait of Hormuz reopens. Examination of international coordination on safe passage, implications for shipping insurance and defence costs, and why markets often underreact due to optimism bias.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS CIO, gives a quick macro check and portfolio read. He breaks down last week’s market rebound, easing oil and geopolitical risks, and what recent US jobs and inflation signals mean. He also outlines near-term interest-rate risk, fixed income preferences, and why gold and global diversification stay on the radar.

Paul Schau, asset allocation strategist for the Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, offers a concise macro briefing. He covers the 2025 rebound and 2026 outlook for dealmaking. He explains why deals are fewer but larger, how AI now captures a big share of M&A dollars, and how AI is reshaping deal sourcing, diligence, and post-deal value creation.

Discussion of why a political social post is unlikely to shift investor policy views. Ongoing Iranian strikes on Gulf energy sites and their delay of oil-market normalization. How current oil levels influence the US affordability squeeze. The timing of US CPI and petrol price moves and how gasoline costs shape consumer inflation perceptions.

Leslie Falconio, UBS taxable fixed income strategist, and Dan Hyman, PIMCO mortgage portfolio manager, discuss fixed income opportunities. They examine agency mortgage-backed securities valuations and why some securitized credit niches look attractive. They also cover market drivers like volatility, bank demand, regulatory effects, and near-term flow risks.

Discussion of market reactions to presidential social-media-style remarks about the Gulf and the risk of escalation affecting infrastructure. Debate over inflation claims versus official data and how higher oil prices squeeze US households. Talk of proposed medicine tariffs and South Korea’s temporary oil price cap and its fiscal risks.

Emily Kaplan, Senior VP and specialist in Postwar and Contemporary Art at Christie’s, shares auction-room strategy and valuation expertise. She explores how estimates and reserves are set and used, bidder psychology and examples where bold estimates drove results. Highlights include Agnes Gund’s Rothko, a rare Twombly, and a notable minimalism collection entering the spring sales.

Discussion of the US stance on a possible Gulf retreat and how that could shift Iran's regional control. Exploration of Iran’s reparations demands and the idea of tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. Consideration of tolls’ likely effect on global import costs and energy prices. Brief look at US retail sales resilience and strong semiconductor-led exports from South Korea.